MD 2206 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN MISSOURI INTO FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS

Mesoscale Discussion 2206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Missouri into far western Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 172318Z - 180115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms will likely increase in
coverage over the next few hours across eastern Missouri and into
far western Illinois. While most storms should remain sub-severe, a
few stronger cores my periodically be capable of producing hail near
severe limits.

DISCUSSION...Recent GOES IR imagery and MRMS data show a steady
uptick in