NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Fri Oct 16 6:22 pm
000
AXNT20 KNHC 162222
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front has entered the far NW
Gulf and extends from 30N93W to 26N97W. Fresh to strong N winds
and building seas follow the front, forecast to reach from near
Tampa Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat
morning, and from the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf to the
eastern Bay of Campeche by early Sun morning. The front will be
just SE of the area on Mon where it will gradually dissipate.
Strong gale force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected
in the wake of the front over the west-central Gulf tonight, and
over the southwest Gulf by Sat morning. Frequent gusts to gale-
force are forecast elsewhere NW of the front tonight into Sat
morning. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the
lower Mississippi Valley behind the wake of the front, promoting
fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the
Gulf likely through Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and extends SW
to 09N34W. The ITCZ extends from 05N45W to 05N54W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 11N between 30W-40W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
See details above about a Gulf of America Gale Warning.
An upper-level trough over the south-central US and a surface
trough in the western Gulf are supporting numerous showers and
thunderstorms across much of the interior Gulf. Another surface
trough along the Mexican coast supports scattered moderate
convection offshore Veracruz. A cold front has entered the far NW
Gulf and extends from 30N93W to 26N97W. Fresh to strong N winds
and building seas follow the front.
For the forecast, cold front is forecast to reach from near Tampa
Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat morning,
and from the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf to the eastern
Bay of Campeche by early Sun morning. The front will be just SE of
the area on Mon where it will gradually dissipate. Strong gale
force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected in the wake
of the front over the west-central Gulf tonight, and over the
southwest Gulf by Sat morning. Frequent gusts to gale- force are
forecast elsewhere NW of the front tonight into Sat morning.
Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the lower
Mississippi Valley behind the wake of the front, promoting fresh
to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf
likely through Tue.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Upper-level diffluence over the NW Caribbean is supporting
numerous moderate to strong convection W of 80W.
AXNT20 KNHC 162222
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front has entered the far NW
Gulf and extends from 30N93W to 26N97W. Fresh to strong N winds
and building seas follow the front, forecast to reach from near
Tampa Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat
morning, and from the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf to the
eastern Bay of Campeche by early Sun morning. The front will be
just SE of the area on Mon where it will gradually dissipate.
Strong gale force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected
in the wake of the front over the west-central Gulf tonight, and
over the southwest Gulf by Sat morning. Frequent gusts to gale-
force are forecast elsewhere NW of the front tonight into Sat
morning. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the
lower Mississippi Valley behind the wake of the front, promoting
fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the
Gulf likely through Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and extends SW
to 09N34W. The ITCZ extends from 05N45W to 05N54W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 11N between 30W-40W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
See details above about a Gulf of America Gale Warning.
An upper-level trough over the south-central US and a surface
trough in the western Gulf are supporting numerous showers and
thunderstorms across much of the interior Gulf. Another surface
trough along the Mexican coast supports scattered moderate
convection offshore Veracruz. A cold front has entered the far NW
Gulf and extends from 30N93W to 26N97W. Fresh to strong N winds
and building seas follow the front.
For the forecast, cold front is forecast to reach from near Tampa
Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat morning,
and from the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf to the eastern
Bay of Campeche by early Sun morning. The front will be just SE of
the area on Mon where it will gradually dissipate. Strong gale
force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected in the wake
of the front over the west-central Gulf tonight, and over the
southwest Gulf by Sat morning. Frequent gusts to gale- force are
forecast elsewhere NW of the front tonight into Sat morning.
Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the lower
Mississippi Valley behind the wake of the front, promoting fresh
to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf
likely through Tue.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Upper-level diffluence over the NW Caribbean is supporting
numerous moderate to strong convection W of 80W.