NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Mon Aug 31 12:26 am
000
AXNT20 KNHC 310426
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Northern Gulf of America (AL97):
A 1012 mb low pressure system is located over the north-central
Gulf of America, south of the mouth of the Mississippi River, near
28N 89.5W, and drifting westward near 5 kt. Scattered to numerous
moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 90 nm of
this low. Satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data
indicate that this system has become better organized since
yesterday, 20 to 25 kt winds occurring across the NE semicircle.
Additional development is possible as the low moves slowly west-
northwestward, and a short- lived tropical depression or tropical
storm could form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or
southwestern Louisiana coasts Tuesday or Tuesday night. Interests
along the Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of the Upper Texas or
southwestern Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days. In
anticipation of this intensification occurring, a Gale Warning has
been issued. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation through 7 days.
Near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola (Remnants of Dolly):
A strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is
producing sporadic bursts of showers and thunderstorms from the
Mona Passage east and southeastward across portions of Puerto
Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the adjacent NE Caribbean and
Atlantic waters to the northern Leeward Islands. Satellite data
and surface observations indicate that there are no signs of a
closed surface circulation, and redevelopment is unlikely during
the next day or two while the wave moves westward to west-
northwestward at about 20 kt. This system will bring locally heavy
rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola over the next couple
of days. Conditions may become more conducive for redevelopment by
the middle of the week as the system reaches the southeastern
Gulf of America. Currently, scattered to numerous moderate to
strong convection extends from the St Croix area southeastward to
the waters just W of the northern Leeward Islands. Strong winds 20
to 30 kt accompany this wave, with seas to 8 to 11 ft across much
of the nearby Atlantic waters, and 6 to 9 ft in the Caribbean
Passages. Rainfall amounts and the location of the highest totals
from this broad system will vary from island to island, as local
topography will enhance orographic lift and support the heaviest
rainfall. Please refer to your local weather agency for specific
rainfall forecasts for your local area.
Please, refer to the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is moving away from the African coast, along 22W
south of 20N, moving west at
AXNT20 KNHC 310426
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Northern Gulf of America (AL97):
A 1012 mb low pressure system is located over the north-central
Gulf of America, south of the mouth of the Mississippi River, near
28N 89.5W, and drifting westward near 5 kt. Scattered to numerous
moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 90 nm of
this low. Satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data
indicate that this system has become better organized since
yesterday, 20 to 25 kt winds occurring across the NE semicircle.
Additional development is possible as the low moves slowly west-
northwestward, and a short- lived tropical depression or tropical
storm could form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or
southwestern Louisiana coasts Tuesday or Tuesday night. Interests
along the Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of the Upper Texas or
southwestern Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days. In
anticipation of this intensification occurring, a Gale Warning has
been issued. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation through 7 days.
Near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola (Remnants of Dolly):
A strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is
producing sporadic bursts of showers and thunderstorms from the
Mona Passage east and southeastward across portions of Puerto
Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the adjacent NE Caribbean and
Atlantic waters to the northern Leeward Islands. Satellite data
and surface observations indicate that there are no signs of a
closed surface circulation, and redevelopment is unlikely during
the next day or two while the wave moves westward to west-
northwestward at about 20 kt. This system will bring locally heavy
rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola over the next couple
of days. Conditions may become more conducive for redevelopment by
the middle of the week as the system reaches the southeastern
Gulf of America. Currently, scattered to numerous moderate to
strong convection extends from the St Croix area southeastward to
the waters just W of the northern Leeward Islands. Strong winds 20
to 30 kt accompany this wave, with seas to 8 to 11 ft across much
of the nearby Atlantic waters, and 6 to 9 ft in the Caribbean
Passages. Rainfall amounts and the location of the highest totals
from this broad system will vary from island to island, as local
topography will enhance orographic lift and support the heaviest
rainfall. Please refer to your local weather agency for specific
rainfall forecasts for your local area.
Please, refer to the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is moving away from the African coast, along 22W
south of 20N, moving west at