NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
Fri Oct 16 5:19 pm
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162119
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Trudy is centered near 14.8N 102.5W at 16/2100 UTC,
moving north-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with
gusts to 90 kt. Max seas are around 32 ft. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong conveciton is occurring from 22N-27N between
98W-104W. A northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is
forecast through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Trudy will approach the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico on Saturday and pass near the coast Saturday night into
Sunday. Slight strengthening is possible Saturday and Saturday
night. Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward
west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
The remnants of Simon are centered near 21.5N 110.3W at 16/2100
UTC, moving northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 7 ft. No deep convection
remains in association with Simon. Swells generated by the
remnants of Simon could affect portions of the coast of west-
central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details on Simon and Trudy.
Gale Warning: A Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event has started
this afternoon. This early-season Tehuanteper should reach gale-
force northerlies Sat morning and likely persist through Tue,
before gradually diminishing on Wed. Peak winds should be around
45 kt Sat afternoon with largest seas near 15 ft from at
afternoon through Sun night.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica near 10N86W to
09N95W. It begins again near 10N101W and extends to 00N130W.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring
from 00N-09N east of 94W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N-07N between 105W-121W and from
04S-02N between 129W-138W..
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Trudy and the Remnants of Simon, as well as the Gale
Warning issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Outside of the areas described in the Special Features section,
fresh N winds have begun along the coast over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas
5-7 ft over the Pacific waters and 2-5 ft over the Gulf of
California.
AXPZ20 KNHC 162119
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Trudy is centered near 14.8N 102.5W at 16/2100 UTC,
moving north-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with
gusts to 90 kt. Max seas are around 32 ft. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong conveciton is occurring from 22N-27N between
98W-104W. A northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is
forecast through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Trudy will approach the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico on Saturday and pass near the coast Saturday night into
Sunday. Slight strengthening is possible Saturday and Saturday
night. Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward
west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
The remnants of Simon are centered near 21.5N 110.3W at 16/2100
UTC, moving northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 7 ft. No deep convection
remains in association with Simon. Swells generated by the
remnants of Simon could affect portions of the coast of west-
central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details on Simon and Trudy.
Gale Warning: A Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event has started
this afternoon. This early-season Tehuanteper should reach gale-
force northerlies Sat morning and likely persist through Tue,
before gradually diminishing on Wed. Peak winds should be around
45 kt Sat afternoon with largest seas near 15 ft from at
afternoon through Sun night.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica near 10N86W to
09N95W. It begins again near 10N101W and extends to 00N130W.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring
from 00N-09N east of 94W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N-07N between 105W-121W and from
04S-02N between 129W-138W..
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Trudy and the Remnants of Simon, as well as the Gale
Warning issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Outside of the areas described in the Special Features section,
fresh N winds have begun along the coast over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas
5-7 ft over the Pacific waters and 2-5 ft over the Gulf of
California.