NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
Tue Sep 01 12:03 am
272
AXPZ20 KNHC 010403
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Sep 1 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Karina is centered near 17.8N 126.6W at 01/0300 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with
gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are around 35 ft. Numerous moderate
to scattered strong convection is noted from 14N-20N between
124W-129W. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity remain possible
through tonight, followed by a gradual weakening trend on
Tuesday. Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the
coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for
the next couple of days and will likely spread northward to
southern California on Monday through midweek. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95):
A 1006 mb low at 13N107W, designated Invest EP95, is expected to
develop into a tropical cyclone later tonight or tomorrow morning
while it moves steadily toward the northwest. Numerous moderate
and scattered strong convection is occurring from 05N-13N between
104W-116W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from
12N-19N between 98W-112W. Peak winds are currently 30 kt and
largest seas 11 ft. Because of this system, a Storm Warning is in
effect for the zone near the Revillagigedo Islands. Highest winds
and largest seas should occur Wed and Thu. While the core of the
system may stay outside of the zones west of Baja California Sur,
fresh to near-gale conditions and large to very large swell are
likely to occur in these offshore zones from Thu through Sat.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
Another tropical wave axis is along 95W from 03N-11N, moving
west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N-10N between 87W-98W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N100W to 13N118W,
then resumes again from 12N126W to beyond 10N140W. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from
06N-17N between 98W-114W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N-09N E of 87W, and from 05N-11W west
of 117W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for more information on
Invest EP95.
A 1006 mb low at 13N107W, designated Invest EP95, has peak winds
of 25 kt and seas to 10 ft over the SW Mexican Offshore Zones
between 104W and 111W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker
with seas 5-7 ft over Pacific waters
AXPZ20 KNHC 010403
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Sep 1 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Karina is centered near 17.8N 126.6W at 01/0300 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with
gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are around 35 ft. Numerous moderate
to scattered strong convection is noted from 14N-20N between
124W-129W. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity remain possible
through tonight, followed by a gradual weakening trend on
Tuesday. Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the
coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for
the next couple of days and will likely spread northward to
southern California on Monday through midweek. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95):
A 1006 mb low at 13N107W, designated Invest EP95, is expected to
develop into a tropical cyclone later tonight or tomorrow morning
while it moves steadily toward the northwest. Numerous moderate
and scattered strong convection is occurring from 05N-13N between
104W-116W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from
12N-19N between 98W-112W. Peak winds are currently 30 kt and
largest seas 11 ft. Because of this system, a Storm Warning is in
effect for the zone near the Revillagigedo Islands. Highest winds
and largest seas should occur Wed and Thu. While the core of the
system may stay outside of the zones west of Baja California Sur,
fresh to near-gale conditions and large to very large swell are
likely to occur in these offshore zones from Thu through Sat.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
Another tropical wave axis is along 95W from 03N-11N, moving
west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N-10N between 87W-98W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N100W to 13N118W,
then resumes again from 12N126W to beyond 10N140W. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from
06N-17N between 98W-114W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N-09N E of 87W, and from 05N-11W west
of 117W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for more information on
Invest EP95.
A 1006 mb low at 13N107W, designated Invest EP95, has peak winds
of 25 kt and seas to 10 ft over the SW Mexican Offshore Zones
between 104W and 111W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker
with seas 5-7 ft over Pacific waters